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Why is Davis So Rainy Right Now?
and how this affects California's housing market.
The discourse around climate change can make it seem like a crisis for future generations to deal with. But climate change is not some vague, hazy phenomenon that will arrive in the future, it is already here. It is already worsening natural disasters, already exacerbating environmental injustices, and already costing billions of dollars in damages. The past two weeks have shown this clearly.
The first in a pair of atmospheric rivers struck California last week, bringing a storm that drenched the state with several inches of rain and snow. Some areas experienced up to seven inches of rain and wind speeds of up to 91 mph. The second atmospheric river, warmer and slower-moving, was even more dangerous. The resulting deluge left several dead, and dumped record levels of rain on Southern California. LA County received over 10 inches between Sunday and Tuesday. Northern California, in contrast, experienced less rain but the worst of the winds.
Atmospheric rivers — air currents holding massive amounts of water vapor — helped bring the state out of a drought last year by filling reservoirs and adding to mountain snowpack. Similarly, the recent storms have benefitted California. LA alone captured 2.7 billion gallons of water, enough to serve over 65,000 residents for a year. Though welcome, the LA Department of Water and Power alone serves 4 million residents. Groundwater recharge systems and water storage structures in the state, overwhelmed by the recent storms, need to be expanded to take full advantage of opportunities like these. In addition, California still needs to manage low groundwater levels and a crisis on the Colorado River to find a long-term water solution.
Another concern is that the storms, flooding, and mudslides came at a cost of $9-11 billion. Even still, less than 2% of homes in the state are insured against floods. Part of the problem is that the 100-year floodplain maps provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency are incredibly out of date. Many residences rely on these maps to determine flood risk. For example, some maps for California date to 2008—and that’s lucky compared to others from the 1980s. Not only that, the maps do not cover the entire country and do not factor in climate change.
This is yet another dimension of California’s homeowner’s insurance crisis. Many insurance companies scaled back their operations in California because of more frequent wildfires, and thus, rising costs of wildfire insurance. We can expect something similar with flood insurance if atmospheric river events are on the rise. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara proposed a solution last year: allow insurers to raise rates in return for staying in California. That means higher premiums and even higher costs of living. If the solution is to keep passing natural disaster costs from insurer to insured, Californians may be staring into an abyss of unbearable premiums. At some point, prices will be too high for either to endure, leaving the government to pick up the bill.
Of course, this cycle will only be intensified by climate change: it almost certainly strengthened the two atmospheric river events and will fuel a rise in wildfires. These will only get worse without significant climate action: global temperatures have already increased by 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, and passing 2°C is looking more and more likely. Other factors are also driving Californians into disaster-prone areas. High urban housing prices, for example, are pushing homeowners and renters into areas of high wildfire risk.
The recent atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need for climate action. Together with ongoing challenges in housing and insurance, these storms exacerbate issues Californians face everyday. The dangers of climate change are dramatic and already here; the response we need from policymakers has to be decisive and immediate.